Crash — Stake Original Guide

Overview

Crash is a multiplier game where the multiplier rises from 1.00× and "crashes" at a random point. Cash out before the crash to lock in your bet × multiplier. Cash out after the crash, you lose everything.

The math is straightforward: the probability of the multiplier reaching value X is approximately (1 − house_edge) / X. With Stake's 1% house edge, P(reach 2.00×) = 49.5%, P(reach 5×) = 19.8%, P(reach 100×) = 0.99%.

How it works

Place your bet before the round starts. Optionally set an auto-cashout target. The multiplier ticks up — fast at first, then slower. At a random point determined by Stake's provably fair RNG, it crashes. If you cashed out before the crash, you win bet × cashout multiplier; if not, you lose.

Each round is independent. Past results have zero predictive power — there is no "due" multiplier. Streaks happen because they're statistically inevitable, not because the game is "hot" or "cold".

The math

The crash point is generated as follows: a uniformly random value in [0,1) is mapped through crash = (1 − house_edge) / random. With house edge 1%, the median crash point is around 1.98×, the mean is theoretically infinite (heavy-tailed distribution).

Expected value at any auto-cashout target X is the same: EV = P(reach X) × X − 1 = (1−h)/X × X − 1 = −h. So your EV per dollar bet is always exactly −1% regardless of where you cash out. Strategy only changes variance.

Strategy

No strategy beats the −1% EV. What you can choose:

• Low cashout (1.5×–2×): high hit rate (~50%–66%), small wins, low variance. Bankroll lasts.
• Mid cashout (5×–10×): hit rate ~10%–20%, longer streaks of losses, decent payouts.
• High cashout (50×+): hit rate <2%, you'll have 50–100 round losing streaks.

Use our Crash calculator to model the longest probable losing streak at your target. With 5× cashout and 95% confidence, expect runs of ~13+ losses; with 100× cashout, runs of ~300 losses are likely.