Plinko EV calculator

How Stake Plinko works

You drop a ball from the top of a triangular pin pyramid. At each pin, the ball goes left or right with equal probability. After N rows, the ball lands in one of N+1 slots at the bottom, each with a published multiplier.

Three settings control the math:

• Rows: 8, 12, or 16. More rows = more slots, more variance.
• Risk: low, medium, high. Risk redistributes multipliers — high risk concentrates payouts in extreme slots, low risk flattens the distribution.
• Bet: any amount within bet limits.

Probability distribution

The probability of landing in slot k after N rows is binomial: P(k) = C(N,k) × 0.5^N. Centre slots are extremely common (the ball "regresses to the middle"); edge slots are rare. For 16 rows, the centre slot has probability ~19.6%; the edge slot has probability ~0.0015% (about 1 in 65,536).

This is why low-risk Plinko has high multipliers in the centre (low payout matches high probability) and high-risk Plinko has low multipliers in the centre (forces players to chase edges). The expected value is constant across all configurations: 99% (1% house edge).

Is there a strategy?

No. Plinko has no skill component. Every drop is independent. Risk level changes variance, not EV.

What you can decide:

• If you want long sessions with smooth bankroll → use low risk and 8 rows.
• If you want occasional big hits and accept long dry spells → use high risk and 16 rows.
• The middle ground (medium, 12 rows) is the most common choice.

Multiplier tables

The 16-row Plinko payout table on Stake (verified from public Stake source):

The "edge" multiplier is the slot at the far left or right of the bottom row. Hitting it on 16 rows happens roughly 1 in 65,536 — about 1 in 32,768 across both edges combined.

Why all settings have the same RTP

The Stake design constraint is: total expected payout per drop must equal 0.99 × bet (1% house edge). The multiplier table is constructed by working backward from the binomial probability distribution. Whatever risk level you choose, the table is rebalanced so that Σ(P(slot) × mult(slot)) = 0.99. You can verify this with the calculator above.

Bet sizing for Plinko

For a 16-row, high-risk session, the standard deviation per drop is roughly 22× your bet. To survive a 95% confidence interval drawdown across 100 drops, your bankroll should be at least 220× your bet size. So $1 bets need a $220 minimum bankroll for the session; $0.10 bets need $22.

If you can't budget that, drop to medium or low risk where standard deviation is much lower and bankroll requirements scale down accordingly.